So emazers has done a great job starting a conversation on large set investments, so I figured I would start a thread for small and medium sets and their investment prospects.
I'm trying to get away from smaller and mid size sets but still will get some I think will be winners if the discount is good enough... But I thought it best to bounce ideas and get other opinions.
So I was at target and saw a few sets on clearance, thinking nothing of it. Then I saw a few mines of moria at 30 or 40% off. Maybe I'll pick one or two up, especially if the discount gets even better.
Well I also saw the bug obliterator for 50% off and almost bit... How can 50% off the best set in wave 1 with an awesome mech not be a good investment? Then I thought... Galaxy squad has been almost on a constant sale which makes me question if it would be desired in the future.
What are your thoughts?
Mid-size set investing discussion
Mid-size set investing discussion
I have mixed feelings about new releases: I can't wait to see and get the new sets... but I can't figure out where I'm gonna put them or store them.
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SpaceViking
- Royal Guardian
- Posts: 617
- Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:49 am
Re: Mid-size set investing discussion
OK, I'll bite.
Predicting future demand on mid-size sets is more complicated, in part because there are so many of them. It's also much more hit-or-miss that the sets emazers typically goes after.
More often than not, the biggest 'hits' are ones with limited production numbers that go EOL much earlier than expected. Recent examples include 3222 (Helicopter and Limousine), 9465 (The Zombies), and 5979 (Max Security Transport). These have all appreciated substantially after EOL, even for themes like Space Police III that are in low demand. The common thread between the above sets is that they were all exclusives to either Target or Walmart. But, that's also not a sure indication---in Ninjago, Skeleton Bowling was a Target exclusive, but it hasn't held up nearly as well as other Ninjago sets (i.e. the dragons).
I see other good candidates in the Creator line. The appreciation isn't usually as dramatic or as sudden as sets like The Zombies, but I find its very consistent. Creator Houses are a staple in the LEGO line. Looking back, most of the plain houses such as
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4886-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Building Bonanza (2004)
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4956-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; House (2007)
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4996-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Beach House (2008)
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=6754-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Family Home (2009)
have appreciated well. Some of the sets above are unique exceptions, e.g. 4956 as a few Cafe Corner pieces in it which has driven its value through the roof. Nonetheless, I expect similar results for the Log Cabin and the Seaside House. A big advantage of these mid-size sets over the larger 'sure hits', is that it is typically much easier to find them on deep discount. For example, the Log Cabin has been as low as $17 (44% of MSRP) at times online.
Even if it 'only' doubles to $60 (2x MSRP) after retirement, if one can get copies for <$20, that's a 3x return.
Similarly, the Creator creatures are popular after retirement. I think the Creator trucks/cars are hit-or-miss, but always worth looking at.
[that's it for now. I may post more thoughts later]
Predicting future demand on mid-size sets is more complicated, in part because there are so many of them. It's also much more hit-or-miss that the sets emazers typically goes after.
More often than not, the biggest 'hits' are ones with limited production numbers that go EOL much earlier than expected. Recent examples include 3222 (Helicopter and Limousine), 9465 (The Zombies), and 5979 (Max Security Transport). These have all appreciated substantially after EOL, even for themes like Space Police III that are in low demand. The common thread between the above sets is that they were all exclusives to either Target or Walmart. But, that's also not a sure indication---in Ninjago, Skeleton Bowling was a Target exclusive, but it hasn't held up nearly as well as other Ninjago sets (i.e. the dragons).
I see other good candidates in the Creator line. The appreciation isn't usually as dramatic or as sudden as sets like The Zombies, but I find its very consistent. Creator Houses are a staple in the LEGO line. Looking back, most of the plain houses such as
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4886-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Building Bonanza (2004)
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4956-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; House (2007)
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4996-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Beach House (2008)
http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=6754-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Family Home (2009)
have appreciated well. Some of the sets above are unique exceptions, e.g. 4956 as a few Cafe Corner pieces in it which has driven its value through the roof. Nonetheless, I expect similar results for the Log Cabin and the Seaside House. A big advantage of these mid-size sets over the larger 'sure hits', is that it is typically much easier to find them on deep discount. For example, the Log Cabin has been as low as $17 (44% of MSRP) at times online.
Even if it 'only' doubles to $60 (2x MSRP) after retirement, if one can get copies for <$20, that's a 3x return.
Similarly, the Creator creatures are popular after retirement. I think the Creator trucks/cars are hit-or-miss, but always worth looking at.
[that's it for now. I may post more thoughts later]
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