lego investing ?? LOLOL wet blanket from old geezer

[condor]

yes I agree the stock market is not good right now but then it has definitely recovered since the most recent USA prez took office, when it tanked. I started buying shares in 500 in early 90s at around 45/50 share, now the share price is 150 or so. It's not really possible to trade in/out mutual funds because then the gubbmit taxman takes a hit, which is why its important to make a good choice at the beginning if you want a long term buy/hold strategy. otherwise trading around requires a higher return from the fund to make $$ etc. back in the late 80s I was getting 9.5% on 6month cds from the BANK & less stellar cds were even higher, then interest rates declined & I moved cash into mutual funds. today 6month cds from banks are what 1% ? not a good deal but safe. If I had to start saving $$$ now I would like put most of it into short term bonds because yes, the market situation is not good, the geopolitical climate is not good - too many wars, too much unrest, too much USA debt, too much trouble that doesn't look like it is getting better instead increasing. All this was not happening in the late 80s/early 90s which was a big runup in stock values. What helped me was to look at those 5-10-20-50 year charts for stock performances & seeing the lines go up/down, putting $$ in at the top likely would require several years just to get even returns, and also reading about bull/bear markets - a good line is "everybody is a genious in a bull market", fund managers make $$ whetehr YOU lose it or not & they come up with all kinds of spin to justify their b.s. after the fact

Thanks for your insight! I still have a LOT to learn.

[stevebuscemi]

No offense, but if you are worried about short/ long return values, check out baseball and basketball cards. These guys open cases and spend 1000 a week only to get 30-50% back. Heck they are coming out with basketball product that is $1175 a box with only 9 cards in it! Its called PANINI FLAWLESS.

Those are hilarious. Auto's/Jersey clips.....and people wonder why the US is criticized for opulence.

[ricefields]

"...Most of the sets he bought years ago, with the plan of selling them a year from now for a profit. Doing this again and again generates Schooley a tidy 10% to 15% annual profit, he says. That tops even the 10% long-term average return of stocks."

For 10-15% profit annually, I would say that's not worth for the time spent IMHO - for others that may be ok. Multinational engineering / construction / design firms aim for 10-20% profit. For Lego I say you have to hit at least 20% profit to be worth it. I have been been averaging 25% over 9 years with some years hitting 40% profit. Worst profit years (2007-2009) still had 18% profit. I am still not happy with that; I think i need to hit closer to an average of 30% profit over the long term.

For the buyers that pay $3000 do you think these buyers are poor or belong to the low middle or working class, these are wealthy buyers who can afford to lose $2500 if they did buy it for investment but I suspect it was likely for a gift or a collection - they dont' want to lose but they accept the risks. Same thing with stocks, you should not play if you cannot afford to lose or don't know how to play the game. The most frequent type of buyers who pay top dollar for the sets that I sell at least, are rich americans and rich albertans (oil rich from calgary/edmonton).

[vexxet]

interesting discussion. however, does this take into account the majority of collectors buy sets that are on clearance for 25-70% off? or is it based on MSRP to inflate itself?

[Luciant]

interesting discussion. however, does this take into account the majority of collectors buy sets that are on clearance for 25-70% off? or is it based on MSRP to inflate itself?

I think this is the way most hobby sellers start, however, those who become profitable realize this is a bad strategy because there is a reason that most of those sets get clearances...lack of demand.

To be successful in investing in Lego you have to treat it as an investment...do your homework and pick winners and try to pick up more when the market price dips (sales). You might be lucky in your area and have a great set sneak to clearance (PotC black pearl), but these are rare and ymmv

[stevebuscemi]

I think this is the way most hobby sellers start, however, those who become profitable realize this is a bad strategy because there is a reason that most of those sets get clearances...lack of demand.

To be successful in investing in Lego you have to treat it as an investment...do your homework and pick winners and try to pick up more when the market price dips (sales). You might be lucky in your area and have a great set sneak to clearance (PotC black pearl), but these are rare and ymmv

This is wrong on many levels. Very few items at 25-60% are clearanced, they are just good finds. Not even sales, but good finds, like a LEGO@Home with 3 add-ons that sell well, or the last Target sale where 15%+sale price+$10 gift card pushed it well into the 40% discount range.

And even clearanced items still sell well. Sure, if you buy Cars clearanced at TRS you might do really bad, but at clearance prices on bad items, you'll still make a big profit. Who can't resell LEGO for profit when you buy at 70% off MSRP after that set has been retired for 6+ months? Anyone could.

It's not so much about "doing your homework". If we could all find that magical LEGO $$$ formula we'd all do it and saturate the market killing off the profit anyway.

[zztoy]

I have read a lot of posts here. A lot of newbie investors are gonna find themselves short. The landscape is not the same anymore for sellers to make a profit to speak about. Reselling fees and procurement are gonna put many in the red and create a lot of disappointments. Wish all new hobbiests well. Cheers.

[ricefields]

It's not so much about "doing your homework". If we could all find that magical LEGO $$$ formula we'd all do it and saturate the market killing off the profit anyway.

magical lego $$$ formula = buy low and sell high even buy high and sell higher is even applicable!

if the market is saturated and buyers are not willing to pay high prices anymore, then this means you have to buy the product even lower ie you have to get the lego outside of retail sources or be disciplined and only buy at 30% off or more (for US msrp only), or find ways to stack discounts/cash backs or find ways to cut operating costs by selling without fees (as in Kijiji or craigslist or on TNB!). The lego aftermarket on kijiji has skyrocketted recently but depends on your local pop. base. I live in an area with 5M + population base. All of this is part of the homework in addition to finding out what are the hot and valuable sets to invest in.

[SlickP]

With the escalated shipping costs and fees it's difficult to make enough money to justify the time spent even if you purchase sets at 50% off. I'm not talking about the exclusive sets but the Walmart/Kmart/Target sets. For ever POTC Black Pearl you will have numerous Jedi Shuttle you can't make $5 off of right now.

[exciter1]

It's not so much about "doing your homework". If we could all find that magical LEGO $$$ formula we'd all do it and saturate the market killing off the profit anyway.

magical lego $$$ formula = buy low and sell high even buy high and sell higher is even applicable!

if the market is saturated and buyers are not willing to pay high prices anymore, then this means you have to buy the product even lower ie you have to get the lego outside of retail sources or be disciplined and only buy at 30% off or more (for US msrp only), or find ways to stack discounts/cash backs or find ways to cut operating costs by selling without fees (as in Kijiji or craigslist or on TNB!). The lego aftermarket on kijiji has skyrocketted recently but depends on your local pop. base. I live in an area with 5M + population base. All of this is part of the homework in addition to finding out what are the hot and valuable sets to invest in.

Keep buying at 50+% off MSRP and it's not too hard to make a 40% - 60% return.

[Mrbill317]

I have read a lot of posts here. A lot of newbie investors are gonna find themselves short. The landscape is not the same anymore for sellers to make a profit to speak about. Reselling fees and procurement are gonna put many in the red and create a lot of disappointments. Wish all new hobbiests well. Cheers.

I want to invest to make a small amt of money to cover my collection gathering. I think we are happy with making a few bucks on a Black Pearl to afford the next LOTR set.

[Brickmythic]

stop feeding the troll folks.

like we said in that thread we wrote 2 1/2-3 years ago, Ninjago dragons were gold.. (well before ice dragon retired)

in a recent thread we wrote a year ago we emphasized Captain America's Avenging cycle and Wolverine chopper showdown.

sorry dude, you can take your mutual funds and shove it...

I'll keep my basement full of Captain America's avenging cycles and Wolverine Chopper Showdown, kthxbubye

[condor]

stop feeding the troll folks.

like we said in that thread we wrote 2 1/2-3 years ago, Ninjago dragons were gold.. (well before ice dragon retired)

in a recent thread we wrote a year ago we emphasized Captain America's Avenging cycle and Wolverine chopper showdown.

sorry dude, you can take your mutual funds and shove it...

I'll keep my basement full of Captain America's avenging cycles and Wolverine Chopper Showdown, kthxbubye

Wow man, no need to be rude.

[dr_teng]

This whole topic seems like such a bizarre idea. Sure, there are plenty of collectible bubbles, though LEGO certainly has a longer history and isn't exploiting their market (which is why a lot of other bubbles form). While some sets have went up to ridiculous levels, most go up a reasonable percentage after they go OOP.

But ignoring that there's constant bubbles (large and small) in financial investments and ignoring things such as mutual fund investments on average, growing less than inflation, and stock market investing being barely better than luck (read some statistics books like the recent one by Nate Silver for an overview of long term market trends and how poor even the top experts have been at predicting them), there's not much sense in criticizing LEGO in particular.

[C&T]

stop feeding the troll folks...

I'll keep my basement full of...

yes note that name calling & taunting your opponent in a debate does not support your own position, which seems to be because you keep legos in your basement that makes it a good idea for other people to do the same ? C'mon you can do better than that

There aren't alot of threads in this forum but here are some good links to them anyway

http://www.toysnbricks.com/forums/viewt ... =83&t=8023
http://www.toysnbricks.com/forums/viewt ... =83&t=3662
http://www.toysnbricks.com/forums/viewt ... =83&t=6574
these 3 threads show exactly what I mean by the amount of time, effort & knowledge needed to make some or good $$ in buying legos & also heavily depend on predicting the future, which is what "investing" is all about, whether you spend $$ on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, beanie babies, cars, antiques or any other kind of "collectible"

http://www.toysnbricks.com/forums/viewt ... =83&t=7619
http://www.toysnbricks.com/forums/viewt ... =83&t=3617
http://www.toysnbricks.com/forums/viewt ... =83&t=4695
3 people here who have IMHO spent serious $$$ on legos hoping to make even more serious $$$

http://www.toysnbricks.com/forums/viewt ... =83&t=7687
some failures

will these strategies work for making $$ in legos ? only time will tell & another standard disclaimer that appears at the bottom of ALL mutual fund prospectus because they are regulated by the gubbmit is - past
performance is no guarantee of future results. sadly enough most people ignore that line & also
ignore the "risk" part of the risk/return curve and focus only on returns.

trust me or don't if you want because you will find out for yourselves someday, that making $$$
in the real world is not easy. if it was everybody would be rich but we aren't so why is that ? repeat....